Flagstaff Blog - Real Estate and All Things Flagstaff: February 2007

Daylight Saving Time -- Who Cares?

In Flagstaff, as in the State of Arizona, we don't change time for Daylight Saving, but many people who live or work on the nearby Navajo reservation DO change to Daylight Saving Time (DST). This can be pretty stressful if you are doing a 90 minute commute to work in Tuba City from Flagstaff, for example. And all of your friends in Flagstaff wonder why you appear to be experiencing jet lag.

DST matters to any of the rest of us Flagstaffonians (most of us) who communicate with people living in other parts of the country. Ever try to call someone on the east coast at 8 p.m. and suddenly remember that it's not 10 p.m. there, but 11 p.m. (and they just fell soundly asleep?) When trying to explain this uniquely Arizona phenomenon to people from other parts of the country, I often say, "we're on California time in the summer, and Denver time in the winter." I'm not sure that helps. Whatever! Here's some interesting news and background on DST that one of our mortgage brokers provided to me and said I could pass along:

SPRING FORWARD, FALL BACK...A Bit More This Year

Daylight Saving Time (DST) will be springing a bit further this year. Back in 2005, Congress enacted the Energy Policy Act, which will extend DST by one month - beginning earlier in the spring and lasting later into the fall - beginning on March 11th and ending on November 4th.

Originally the bill was written to extend Daylight Saving by two months, but some very verbal opponents fought the change. Farmers say that DST has a negative impact on their livestock in general - as it is tough for them to adapt to the time change, and they therefore produce less milk, eggs, etc. Because DST is not followed uniformly around the world, airlines claim that it might mean many missed international flight connections. Additionally, TV and Cable stations argued that they will lose viewers and advertising revenue, simply due to less time spent in front of the television because of more time spent outdoors in daylight. So a compromise of one additional month of DST was reached - and Congress did retain the right to revert back to the old dates if the change proves to be widely unpopular, or if the energy savings aren't significant.

Why the change?

After making the adjustment to getting up an hour early, Americans overwhelmingly like Daylight Saving Time. There is simply more sunlight in the evenings to enjoy the outdoors and get things done. Additionally, there may be emotional benefits, as we typically feel better with more daylight. Plus, increased hours of daylight saves energy on a national scale. Less electricity is needed, as fewer lights are turned on as early in the evening...and with energy costs so high, even a small amount of savings is very welcome.

And brighter is safer - studies have shown that the DST shift reduces traffic accidents. An increase in accidents in the dark mornings is more than offset by the evening decrease in accidents, due to the increased visibility gained with more sunlight. Halloween will be much safer too - child pedestrian deaths are four times higher on Halloween than any other night of the year. Now, young trick-or-treaters are able to spend an extra hour out getting treats in the light. Candy manufacturers are happy too, as they've lobbied for years to have DST extended through Halloween.

A study by the US Law Enforcement Admin also determined that crime is consistently lower during DST, with violent crimes down as much as 10 - 13%. For many crimes, like mugging, darkness is a factor - so more light in the evening hours reduces these types of crimes.

And throughout its long history, Daylight Saving Time has had a remarkable and sometimes unexpected impact.

A man was actually able to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War using a Daylight Saving Time loophole. When he was born, it was just after midnight, DST. When he was drafted, he successfully argued that in his home state of Delaware, standard time - not DST - was the official time for recording births. So he was technically born on the previous date - which had a much higher draft lottery number - and he was able to avoid being drafted.

In September 1999, the West Bank was on Daylight Saving Time, while Israel had switched back to standard time. A group of West Bank terrorists prepared some timed bombs - but misunderstood the time change - and the bombs exploded early, killing the terrorists themselves, rather than the intended victims - two busloads of innocent citizens.

In the 1950's and 60's, each state and locality was permitted to choose start and end DST dates as they desired. During 1965, Minneapolis and St Paul - which are considered one metropolitan area - didn't agree on start dates, and for a period of time, these Twin Cities had a one hour time change between them. And on one Ohio to Virginia bus route, passengers technically had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles!

To keep to their published timetables, Amtrak trains cannot leave a station before the scheduled time. So when the clocks "fall back" in the fall, all trains that are running on time actually stop at 2:00am - the official time of DST change - and wait one hour before resuming their routes. In the spring, the routes instantaneously become one hour behind schedule, but they just keep going and do their best to make up the time.

So Daylight Saving Time sure can have some unexpected impact - and we'll all have to be ready early this year.

In particular, be sure to double-check all of your electronic devices and confirm that the time is correct. (For us in Arizona, most devices have a special "Arizona" time zone.)  Although you may be accustomed to your computer and digital clock in your car automatically updating, the recent change of dates for daylight saving time may require that these devices be manually changed, as they now may not be ready to update to the correct time on the correct date!

Flagstaff Market Report for February 2007

The market is good. We have nearly twice as many homes on the market as at this time last year, but prices continue to be strong. Buyers have choices. Sellers are retaining value. What could be better?                       

MLS Statistics

Median Price

Average Price

Homes Sold

January 2007

$345,000

$409,967

78

December 2006

$299,500

$362,648

88

January 2006

$305,000

$398,314

73

Multiple-listing-service data is for single family, townhomes, condos and manufactured homes with Flagstaff, Arizona mailing addresses. "MLS" data is based upon information from the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors® and is deemed reliable for sales reported to the association, but is not guaranteed and does not include all sales in the market area.

February Chat from Flagstaff -- Some Ideas I've picked up recently

I had the opportunity to attend an exciting national conference of the top 3% of Realtors® in the country. (Also, there was a large contingent from Spain to learn what we do!)  This is the annual meeting of Certified Residential Specialists. I learned a lot and got to meet a lot of people who do things differently, and much the same, from other parts of the country. And, I found out how to start a Blog!  So, from now on you can see the local real estate and community news, as well as notice of upcoming events, by visiting my blog site (there is a link from our website). And you can talk back to us with comments that you might like to "post" about our news. Go to http://www.bestflagstaffhomes.com/ to get the link to the blog (it's right under the slideshow of our featured listings). 

I also picked up some identity protection strategies, and ways to cut down on junk mail and protect your credit. (Compliments of Chris Bird.) First, many of you have already registered your phone numbers with http://www.donotcall.gov/. You can register cell phones as well as your home phone. Registration prevents commercial sales calls from people you don't have an existing business relationship with or haven't asked to call you. It won't prevent your alma mater, a charity, or politicians from calling you, but it helps! Remember to renew your registration every five years - it doesn't last forever. 

Take yourself off the mailing lists for unsolicited credit card and insurance offers for five years by calling 1-888-567-8688. Also, you can reduce the number of catalogs and mail advertisements you receive by registering online at http://www.dmaconsumers.org/. Just click on the button on the left side of their homepage and fill out the online form - registration costs $1.00 with your credit card information on-line, or you can print out the form and mail it in with a check. Fill out a separate form for every member of your household. I've been trying to find out how to do this for months and now that I've found it, I'm excited to be sharing it with you! 

            Identity protection strategies:

  1. Purchase, and use, a shredder. (We do it at the office, why not at home?)
  2. Order a credit report at least once a year - look for things you don't recognize and contest them.
  3. Write a letter to all the credit agencies (there are three major ones) telling them to include a "consumer statement" on your file. The statement simply says: "For any credit requested under this name and social security number, please call me at this phone number (insert your phone number)." The three credit agencies to write to are:

Experian Consumer Services

901 West Bond Street

Lincoln, NE 68521

TransUnion

P.O. Box 6790
Fullerton, CA 92834

Equifax Information Services LLC
P.O. Box 740256
Atlanta, GA 30374

           

Fundraiser for Second Chance Center for Animals

Second Chance Fundraiser

Flagstaff Historic District

The Flagstaff City Council voted last night to approve the proposal to designate the Old Town area of Flagstaff (generally between Thorpe and Wheeler Parks) as an historic district.  The "second reading" and likely final approval will happen at the Flagstaff City Council meeting on February 20. 

 The designation will place certain height and other restrictions on buildings in the area.

 If you want to comment about this, contact a city council member in the next 13 days!

What's good.

Last week, I was able to attend the annual "Sellabration" event of the top 3% of real estate agents in the country -- the Certified Residential Specialists. I came back Saturday and have been implementing the ideas I picked up. What a great event!

One of the ideas was to use Active Rain. I hope others find my posts interesting and useful.

Certifed Residential Specialist logo

Ok, I haven't been working all the time since I got back. I also took my birthday off (Monday) and went for a hike at the Grand Canyon. One of the benefits of living in Flagstaff is that you live only 90 miles from one of the greatest wonders in the world.

Ann at the Grand Canyon on her birthday

West Downtown Residential Historic District Hearings

City Council Workship and Hearing on establishment of historic district in residential areas between Thorpe and Wheeler parks.

Monday, February 5, 4 p.m. Work Session -- public comment

Tuesday, February 6, 6 p.m.

February Things to Do in Flagstaff

February 1-28: 21st Annual Flagstaff Winterfest is a month-long festival celebrating the liveliness of the winter season with events and activities that offer something for everyone. Visit the Chamber web site for more information on all of the events: www.flagstaffchamber.com

February 2: Grand Canyon Guitar Society presents classical guitarist Jerome DuCharme. Federated Community Church, 400 W. Aspen, 7:30 p.m.

February 2: First Friday Art Walk, The Artists Gallery, 17 N. San Francisco St., 6:30-9:00 p.m. Meet local artists, shop at downtown galleries, and enjoy fine art, live music, and refreshments.

February 9: Black History Month Program, Cogdill Recreation Center, 301 S. Paseo Del Flag, 6:00-8:00 p.m., free. The achievements and contributions of African Americans are featured through words, poetry, song, and more. Light refreshments will be served.

February 9: NAU Jazz/Madrigal Host Concert, Ardrey Auditorium, 7:30 p.m., $12.50 adults, $8.50 students, 928-523-2642. NAU Shrine of the Ages Choir and guest men's ensemble CANTUS from Minneapolis.

February 10: Flagstaff Interactive Dog Organization hosts "Puppy Love" a Second Chance fundraiser at Heritage Square 11-2.

February 11: Northern Arizona Youth Orchestra Concert, Flagstaff High School, Main Auditorium, 400 W. Elm, 7:00 p.m., $5. The Flagstaff area high school honors orchestra, now in its 40th season, will present great music conducted by Jon Eder and William Cummings.

February 16: Flagstaff Symphony Orchestra and USA Ballet, NAU Ardrey Auditorium, 7:30 p.m., $20-38. Les Sylphides, Give Me Five.

February 16-28: "Lysistrata", Theatrikos Theatre Company, 11 W. Cherry, 8:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. matinees, $14.

February 23, 24, 25 and 28: "Still Life With Iris", NAU Clifford E. White Theatre, Performing Arts Bldg., 8:00 and 2:00 p.m. matinee on February 24-25, $8 students, $10 seniors/ faculty/staff, $11 general public. A magical story about a young girl's search for the family she once knew. Mozart and Annabel Lee join Iris in her fantastic journey. Appropriate for the entire family.

February 24: Denim or Diamonds Gala, Radisson Woodlands Hotel, 1175 W. Route 66, 6:00 p.m. to midnight, $50. Reserve: 928-526-2896. Fun-filled night with fine dining, music, mock casino, and live/silent auctions. Benefits local cancer patients and their families.

What's Great about Flagstaff (in summary)

Flagstaff is a great little city in Northern Arizona -- about 2.5 hours north of Phoenix. We're at 7000 feet in elevation, so we have one of the best four-season climates.

Total population is between 60,000 and 70,000, depending upon which adjacent unincorporated areas you'd like to include in the count. We're the home of Northern Arizona University, and the Flagstaff Medical Center, which make us much more "metropolitan" than many cities of our size. We're also 40 minutes from the lower, warmer Sedona Red Rocks area and 90 minutes one of the "Seven Wonders of the World" -- the Grand Canyon.

 You can learn a lot about our great city at the Flagstaff Info/Links page of my website: http://BestFlagstaffHomes.com

Annual Flagstaff Report for Year End 2006

The table below should dispel any notion that the bottom fell out of the Flagstaff real estate market in 2006. Given the market news we've heard from other parts of the country, where prices did fall, it also explains why CNNMoney.com identified Flagstaff as one of the hottest markets in the country. What did happen, however, is that our rate of price increases declined compared to 2004 and 2005, and sellers experienced real competition in marketing most homes while buyers had opportunities to choose among competing homes in our average price ranges for the first time in more than two years.

 

In some ways, the statistics seem in conflict with the basic laws of economics - the number of units sold declined, yet prices went up. This is Flagstaff's version of what national housing economists have characterized as "price-stickiness." Essentially, it means that many sellers are willing to wait for their price - even taking their homes off the market rather than sell.  In past years, these sellers would have experienced phenomenal gains very quickly and then tried to figure out where to move!  This year, they still could have experienced gains, but needed to be motivated to beat their competition in order to sell.

 

The distressing part of this table shows that the most "affordable housing" - manufactured and mobile homes - increased at the highest rate. Many fewer of these homes were added to our housing stock in 2006 compared to recent years. In contrast, we've had an increase in condo offerings with three apartment complexes converting to condos. Accordingly, that sector increased the least in price.

 

  

Sold Units

(as reported in Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service - does not reflect all sales in the market)

  

Single-Family "Stick-Built"

  

Townhomes

Condos

  

Manufactured

Mobile

Modules

  

All types

  

# of Units 2005

(Avg. Days to Sell)

995

(73)

191

(56)

86

(95)

171

(71)

1443

73

# of Units 2006

(Avg. Days to Sell)

784

(88)

189

(59)

81

(103)

151

(84)

1205

88

  

2005 Avg. Price

$395,823

$256,401

$202,755

$174,066

$339,583

2006 Avg. Price

$462,444

$294,370

$212,629

$210,387

$387,704

Change in Units Sold:

-21%

-1%

-6%

-11.7%

-16%

Change in Average Price

+16%

+14.8%

+4.9%

+20.9%

+14.2%

 

Continued on prior page . . .

Annual Market Report (continued from back page)

 

A quarter-by-quarter analysis for Flagstaff sales is below:

 

MLS Statistics

Median Price

Average Price

Homes Sold

4th Quarter 2006

$330,791

$377,599

274

3d Quarter 2006

 $340,000 

 $407,128

356

2d Quarter 2006

$340,000

$390,519

344

1st Quarter 2006

$309,900

$370,002

211

MLS data for single family, townhomes, condos and manufactured homes with Flagstaff mailing addresses. See footer.

 

The days-on-the-market number ended 2006 with an average of 87 days from listing to closing. This compares to an average of between 60 and 70 throughout 2005. The number of homes actively for sale as of January 8, 2007, was 631 compared to 317 on January 12, 2005, when we took last year's January "snapshot."  The pace of sales has changed dramatically, with Flagstaff, like the most of the rest of the nation, having over six month's supply. Actually, Flagstaff has over seven months' as of the January 8 snapshot. Last year in January, Flagstaff was still a very hot seller's market with just 2 months' supply of homes available. However, looking at prices under $500,000, we are still technically in a seller's market with just under six months' supply. So, while buyers in that price range have more choices than last year, sellers are still in the driver's seat overall.

 

Last year, when we had just come off a year of nearly 30% gain, my annual report predicted overall gains for the year of 10-12%.  As it turned out, I was too pessimistic. Flagstaff's unique characteristics continue to draw buyers in great numbers and the economy overall continues to support the second home market. To top things off, interest rates were lower in the fall and at the end of the year than they had been in the spring and summer. Thus, an average price increase of over 14% -- a rate spectacular compared to many parts of the country. In 2007, I anticipate another great year for those who already own Flagstaff real estate. Barring major disruptions on the national scene, I expect our prices will again increase in the 11%-15% range. The number of condo sales may pull down the average and median prices a bit to make us fall short of my estimate, but for single family and townhome owners, the price increases will continue. Sellers do need to remember that we're not going to see a market like 2004-2005 again for some years to come.

 

2006 was a wonderful year for Team Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties. We helped nearly 50 individuals and families find or move on to their new homes, or make or dispose of their investments in Flagstaff real estate. Some of our clients came from internet contacts, but most of our work has come from past clients and referrals by friends and associates. We are extremely thankful for such help and support, and for the compliment that referrals and returning clients imply. Also in 2006, Patty Peck joined our team as a Buyer Specialist and Celeste Chavez joined us a Client Care Manager. Our company, RE/MAX Peak Properties, was chosen as Best of Flagstaff real estate office by readers of the Arizona Daily Sun for the second year in a row.

 

We look forward to another wonderful year in 2007, and wish the best to all of you!

 

Ann Heitland, CRS, ABR, GRI

Associate Broker, Realtor®

and

Tina Sutton, ABR, GRI and Realtor®

Patty Peck, ABR and Realtor®

Celeste Chavez, Client Care Manager and Realtor®